Can Real-Time Data Save Independent Film?
BCA alumnus Alex Petrosian is working on the answer
by Desa Philadelphia
Alex Petrosian is a banking analyst with a passion for both the business and art of filmmaking. To accommodate his interests, he decided to pursue an MBA from the USC Marshall School of Business, and then coupled it with a Graduate Certificate in the Business of Cinematic Arts from SCA. After graduating in 2022, Petrosian, who describes himself as a “math guy” and “movie nerd” still wasn’t interested in a c-suite studio or agency job, but couldn’t help but wonder if there was some way he could “use both sides of the brain,” adding that: “A lot of my teachers at SC told me I should go into producing and/or content strategy.”
Petrosian may have found the balance at Cinelytic, an AI startup that uses big data analysis to forecast success, focused on the independent market. Founded by Tobias Queisser, an investment banker turned independent film producer, and Dev Sen, who developed risk-assessment software for NASA, the company has built an AI driven content intelligence platform that includes a database of more than 100,000 films and 600,000 personnel (actors, directors, producers, and other key creatives). The platform features various tools that provide insights on talent value, content value, best financing mix and best path to market. “The idea was to build a tool that aggregates all the relevant data that’s out in the industry, whether it’s box office or TV data,” says Queisser, “And then the important thing was to understand how we digitize the workflow to make sure the data is being used in the best possible way. We build systems that make it very easy for the user to navigate complex forecasts.”
AI machine learning drives the forecasting so that it’s constantly, instantly, mining the latest data—whether it’s talent (how marketable is an actor, director?), path to market (should I try Sundance or SXSW?) or distribution (what countries should I try to sell this?). “And that is as early as script financing stage,” adds Queisser. “The industry is becoming very transparent.”
“You need to be passionate about the art and creative side because it’s not just a numbers game,” he cautions. “Sometimes people love the movie for a reason you couldn’t have predicted.”
Predictive data in the movie business isn’t new of course. Studios and big production companies have whole divisions dedicated to the task of number crunching to inform decision making. Cinelytic is focused on making the practice more equitable, by also making it accessible to the little guys, and importantly, putting it at their fingertips with a searchable database that is constantly updated, has a clean, minimalist presentation (it looks more like data presentation for fashion industry types than just plain number crunching) and offers sliding-scale pricing.
The real-time aspect of all this information is the game changer. Say you’re a filmmaker just kicking it at Sundance or SXSW, and you meet an investor type at the USC alumni party. An impromptu conversation about the project you’re developing manages to land you a one-on-one meeting set up for the next day with their team, at the company condo. Instead of frantically trying to figure out who you know in common who can offer intel, you log into the Cinelytic platform and have an instant report on how well their films have done, what actors they regularly work with, where their market share lies, and in what price points their projects regularly land. On their side, the investors can access information about how well the genre, subject matter, and price-point of the project have performed in recent years. Cinelytic’s team likens their tool to the latest map apps: Twenty years ago, you didn’t know how long it would take you to get across town; today you can see the traffic in real time. “It is like the Google Maps or Waze for the film industry,” explains Queisser. “It’s the user making the decisions, but it helps you map out the best path to market. It’s not a crystal ball but it’s very useful tool to help inform your decision, and it’s always up to date.” As a testament to the effectiveness of their platform, Cinelytic published their revenue predictions for the full 2023 domestic box office slate back in September of 2022. They say that as of mid-December 2023, those predictions have been 99% accurate, and were made using only the information available before greenlighting a film.
Petrosian emphasizes that the idea isn’t to eliminate risk. After all, filmmaking is essentially a subjective undertaking. “You need to be passionate about the art and creative side because it’s not just a numbers game,” he cautions. “Sometimes people love a movie for a reason you couldn’t have predicted.”
Cinelytic won’t say how much they charge, explaining that it differs for each client, whether a studio or a first-time producer/director. However, they describe their service as affordable, and it’s likely to become even more so as data continues to be more plentiful.